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COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies

This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries’ interconnections to understand the spread of the virus. I estimate a global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social connectio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Milani, Fabio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7437387/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32839640
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4
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author Milani, Fabio
author_facet Milani, Fabio
author_sort Milani, Fabio
collection PubMed
description This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries’ interconnections to understand the spread of the virus. I estimate a global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social connections across country borders. I show that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior. In the early phases of the pandemic, perceptions of coronavirus risk in most countries are affected by pandemic shocks originating in Italy. Later, the USA, Spain, and the UK play sizable roles. Social distancing responses to domestic and global health shocks are heterogeneous; however, they almost always exhibit delays and sluggish adjustments. Unemployment responses vary widely across countries. Unemployment is particularly responsive to health shocks in the USA and Spain, while unemployment fluctuFations are attenuated almost everywhere else.
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spelling pubmed-74373872020-08-20 COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies Milani, Fabio J Popul Econ Original Paper This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries’ interconnections to understand the spread of the virus. I estimate a global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social connections across country borders. I show that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior. In the early phases of the pandemic, perceptions of coronavirus risk in most countries are affected by pandemic shocks originating in Italy. Later, the USA, Spain, and the UK play sizable roles. Social distancing responses to domestic and global health shocks are heterogeneous; however, they almost always exhibit delays and sluggish adjustments. Unemployment responses vary widely across countries. Unemployment is particularly responsive to health shocks in the USA and Spain, while unemployment fluctuFations are attenuated almost everywhere else. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020-08-19 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7437387/ /pubmed/32839640 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4 Text en © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Milani, Fabio
COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
title COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
title_full COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
title_fullStr COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
title_short COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
title_sort covid-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global var analysis of cross-country interdependencies
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7437387/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32839640
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4
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