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Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran

The COVID-19 outbreak in late December 2019 is still spreading rapidly in many countries and regions around the world. It is thus urgent to predict the development and spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 by using a deep learning method with rollin...

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Autores principales: Wang, Peipei, Zheng, Xinqi, Ai, Gang, Liu, Dongya, Zhu, Bangren
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7437443/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32839643
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110214
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author Wang, Peipei
Zheng, Xinqi
Ai, Gang
Liu, Dongya
Zhu, Bangren
author_facet Wang, Peipei
Zheng, Xinqi
Ai, Gang
Liu, Dongya
Zhu, Bangren
author_sort Wang, Peipei
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 outbreak in late December 2019 is still spreading rapidly in many countries and regions around the world. It is thus urgent to predict the development and spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 by using a deep learning method with rolling update mechanism based on the epidemical data provided by Johns Hopkins University. First, as traditional epidemical models use the accumulative confirmed cases for training, it can only predict a rising trend of the epidemic and cannot predict when the epidemic will decline or end, an improved model is built based on long short-term memory (LSTM) with daily confirmed cases training set. Second, considering the existing forecasting model based on LSTM can only predict the epidemic trend within the next 30 days accurately, the rolling update mechanism is embedded with LSTM for long-term projections. Third, by introducing Diffusion Index (DI), the effectiveness of preventive measures like social isolation and lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 is analyzed in our novel research. The trends of the epidemic in 150 days ahead are modeled for Russia, Peru and Iran, three countries on different continents. Under our estimation, the current epidemic in Peru is predicted to continue until November 2020. The number of positive cases per day in Iran is expected to fall below 1000 by mid-November, with a gradual downward trend expected after several smaller peaks from July to September, while there will still be more than 2000 increase by early December in Russia. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of preventive measures which have been taken by the government, which shows that the strict controlment can significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.
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spelling pubmed-74374432020-08-20 Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran Wang, Peipei Zheng, Xinqi Ai, Gang Liu, Dongya Zhu, Bangren Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The COVID-19 outbreak in late December 2019 is still spreading rapidly in many countries and regions around the world. It is thus urgent to predict the development and spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 by using a deep learning method with rolling update mechanism based on the epidemical data provided by Johns Hopkins University. First, as traditional epidemical models use the accumulative confirmed cases for training, it can only predict a rising trend of the epidemic and cannot predict when the epidemic will decline or end, an improved model is built based on long short-term memory (LSTM) with daily confirmed cases training set. Second, considering the existing forecasting model based on LSTM can only predict the epidemic trend within the next 30 days accurately, the rolling update mechanism is embedded with LSTM for long-term projections. Third, by introducing Diffusion Index (DI), the effectiveness of preventive measures like social isolation and lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 is analyzed in our novel research. The trends of the epidemic in 150 days ahead are modeled for Russia, Peru and Iran, three countries on different continents. Under our estimation, the current epidemic in Peru is predicted to continue until November 2020. The number of positive cases per day in Iran is expected to fall below 1000 by mid-November, with a gradual downward trend expected after several smaller peaks from July to September, while there will still be more than 2000 increase by early December in Russia. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of preventive measures which have been taken by the government, which shows that the strict controlment can significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-11 2020-08-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7437443/ /pubmed/32839643 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110214 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Peipei
Zheng, Xinqi
Ai, Gang
Liu, Dongya
Zhu, Bangren
Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran
title Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran
title_full Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran
title_fullStr Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran
title_full_unstemmed Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran
title_short Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran
title_sort time series prediction for the epidemic trends of covid-19 using the improved lstm deep learning method: case studies in russia, peru and iran
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7437443/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32839643
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110214
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