The zero impact of the Vehicle Inspection Program on public health in São Paulo, SP

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of two interventions (implementation and suspension of mandatory vehicle inspection) on morbidity and mortality due to conditions related to air pollution, from 2008 to 2017. METHODS: Interrupted time series (ARIMA models), using data available in public repositories. RESULTS: A total of 229,337 children of up to 5 years old were hospitalized due to respiratory diseases, and 1,053 died (average monthly mortality ratio for this population: 1.12/100,000). Exact 137,876 individuals over 40 years old were hospitalized for an acute myocardial infarction, and 19,492 died (3.7/100,000). A total of 11,010 individuals over 40 years old were hospitalized with malignant neoplasms of the respiratory system; 2,898 died (0.5/100,000). A total of 20,807 individuals over 60 years old were hospitalized with chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases; 2,627 died (1.5/100,000). As for strokes, 69,180 individuals were hospitalized, and 10,866 died (2.1/100,000). We found no significant regression coefficient for the implementation or suspension of the program regarding hospitalizations and deaths. 38,207 children of up to 14 years old were hospitalized with asthma, and 25 of them died (0.007/100,000). The coefficients show a monthly increase of 0.05 deaths/100,000 people (p = 0.01) in the post-inspection period. We found no correlation between the measured concentrations of the pollutants PM(2.5) and CO – in a monitoring station, in the central region of the municipality – and the implementation or suspension of the inspection. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence confirms that the program had a measurable beneficial impact on morbidity and mortality due to respiratory and circulatory diseases.