COVID-19 epidemic monitoring after non-pharmaceutical interventions: The use of time-varying reproduction number in a country with a large migrant population

BACKGROUND: COVID-19’s emergence carries with it many uncertainties and challenges, including strategies to manage the epidemic. Oman has implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. However, responses to NPIs may be different across different populations within a country with a large number of migrants, such as Oman. This study investigated the different responses to NPIs, and assessed the use of the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)) to monitor them. METHODS: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 data for Oman, from February 24 to June 3, 2020, were used alongside demographic and epidemiological information. Data were arranged into pairs of infector–infectee, and two main libraries of R software were used to estimate reproductive number (R(t)). R(t) was calculated for both Omanis and non-Omanis. FINDINGS: A total of 13,538 cases were included, 44.9% of which were Omanis. Among all these cases we identified 2769 infector–infectee pairs for calculating R(t). There was a sharp drop in R(t) from 3.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8–4.6) in mid-March to 1.4 (95% CI 1.2–1.7) in late March in response to NPIs. R(t) then decreased further to 1.2 (95% CI 1.1–1.3) in late April after which it rose, corresponding to the easing of NPIs. Comparing the two groups, the response to major public health controls was more evident in Omanis in reducing R(t) to 1.09 (95% CI 0.84–1.3) by the end of March. INTERPRETATION: Use of real-time estimation of R(t) allowed us to follow the effects of NPIs. The migrant population responded differently than the Omani population.