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Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios
We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to capture different aspects of a complex virus diffusion as h...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7440039/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32843818 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.125092 |
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author | Anacleto, M.A. Brito, F.A. de Queiroz, A.R. Passos, E. Santos, J.R.L. |
author_facet | Anacleto, M.A. Brito, F.A. de Queiroz, A.R. Passos, E. Santos, J.R.L. |
author_sort | Anacleto, M.A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to capture different aspects of a complex virus diffusion as humanity has been recently facing. The model being continuous it is bound to be solved analytically and/or numerically. So, we investigate two possible models where the diffusion coefficient associated with possible types of contamination are captured by some specific profiles. The active cases curves here derived were able to successfully describe the pandemic behavior of Germany and Spain. Moreover, we also predict some scenarios for the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. Furthermore, we depicted the cumulative cases curves of COVID-19, reproducing the spreading of the pandemic between the cities of São Paulo and São José dos Campos, Brazil. The scenarios also unveil how the lockdown measures can flatten the contamination curves. We can find the best profile of the diffusion coefficient that better fit the real data of pandemic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7440039 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74400392020-08-21 Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios Anacleto, M.A. Brito, F.A. de Queiroz, A.R. Passos, E. Santos, J.R.L. Physica A Article We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to capture different aspects of a complex virus diffusion as humanity has been recently facing. The model being continuous it is bound to be solved analytically and/or numerically. So, we investigate two possible models where the diffusion coefficient associated with possible types of contamination are captured by some specific profiles. The active cases curves here derived were able to successfully describe the pandemic behavior of Germany and Spain. Moreover, we also predict some scenarios for the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. Furthermore, we depicted the cumulative cases curves of COVID-19, reproducing the spreading of the pandemic between the cities of São Paulo and São José dos Campos, Brazil. The scenarios also unveil how the lockdown measures can flatten the contamination curves. We can find the best profile of the diffusion coefficient that better fit the real data of pandemic. Elsevier B.V. 2020-12-01 2020-08-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7440039/ /pubmed/32843818 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.125092 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Anacleto, M.A. Brito, F.A. de Queiroz, A.R. Passos, E. Santos, J.R.L. Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
title | Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
title_full | Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
title_fullStr | Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed | Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
title_short | Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
title_sort | diffusive process under lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7440039/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32843818 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.125092 |
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