The FUTUREPAIN study: Validating a questionnaire to predict the probability of having chronic pain 7-10 years into the future

OBJECTIVES: The FUTUREPAIN study develops a short general-purpose questionnaire, based on the biopsychosocial model, to predict the probability of developing or maintaining moderate-to-severe chronic pain 7–10 years into the future. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study. Two-thirds of participants in the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States were randomly assigned to a training cohort used to train a predictive machine learning model based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, which produces a model with minimal covariates. Out-of-sample predictions from this model were then estimated using the remaining one-third testing cohort to determine the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). An optimal cut-point that maximized sensitivity and specificity was determined. RESULTS: The LASSO model using 82 variables in the training cohort, yielded an 18-variable model with an out-of-sample AUROC of 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.80, 0.91) in the testing cohort. The sum of sensitivity (0.88) and specificity (0.76) was maximized at a cut-point of 17 (95% CI: 15, 18) on a 0–100 scale where the AUROC was 0.82. DISCUSSION: We developed a short general-purpose questionnaire that predicts the probability of an adult having moderate-to-severe chronic pain in 7-to-10 years. It has diagnostic ability greater than 80% and can be used regardless of whether a patient is currently experiencing chronic pain. Knowing which patients are likely to have moderate-to-severe chronic pain in the future allows clinicians to target preventive treatment.