Effect of Weather on the Die-Off of Escherichia coli and Attenuated Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium on Preharvest Leafy Greens following Irrigation with Contaminated Water

The Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) includes a time-to-harvest interval following the application of noncompliant water to preharvest produce to allow for microbial die-off. However, additional scientific evidence is needed to support this rule. This study aimed to determine the impact of weather on the die-off rate of Escherichia coli and Salmonella on spinach and lettuce under field conditions. Standardized, replicated field trials were conducted in California, New York, and Spain over 2 years. Baby spinach and lettuce were grown and inoculated with an ∼10(4)-CFU/ml cocktail of E. coli and attenuated Salmonella. Leaf samples were collected at 7 time points (0 to 96 h) following inoculation; E. coli and Salmonella were enumerated. The associations of die-off with study design factors (location, produce type, and bacteria) and weather were assessed using log-linear and biphasic segmented log-linear regression. A segmented log-linear model best fit die-off on inoculated leaves in most cases, with a greater variation in the segment 1 die-off rate across trials (−0.46 [95% confidence interval {95% CI}, −0.52, −0.41] to −6.99 [95% CI, −7.38, −6.59] log(10) die-off/day) than in the segment 2 die-off rate (0.28 [95% CI, −0.20, 0.77] to −1.00 [95% CI, −1.16, −0.85] log(10) die-off/day). A lower relative humidity was associated with a faster segment 1 die-off and an earlier breakpoint (the time when segment 1 die-off rate switches to the segment 2 rate). Relative humidity was also found to be associated with whether die-off would comply with FSMA’s specified die-off rate of −0.5 log(10) die-off/day. IMPORTANCE The log-linear die-off rate proposed by FSMA is not always appropriate, as the die-off rates of foodborne bacterial pathogens and specified agricultural water quality indicator organisms appear to commonly follow a biphasic pattern with an initial rapid decline followed by a period of tailing. While we observed substantial variation in the net culturable population levels of Salmonella and E. coli at each time point, die-off rate and FSMA compliance (i.e., at least a 2 log(10) die-off over 4 days) appear to be impacted by produce type, bacteria, and weather; die-off on lettuce tended to be faster than that on spinach, die-off of E. coli tended to be faster than that of attenuated Salmonella, and die-off tended to become faster as relative humidity decreased. Thus, the use of a single die-off rate for estimating time-to-harvest intervals across different weather conditions, produce types, and bacteria should be revised.