Age-specific predictors of cervical dysplasia recurrence after primary conization: analysis of 3,212 women

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify predictors of recurrence/persistence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) lesion (r-CIN2+) after primary conization. METHODS: Retrospective analysis involving all consecutive women having conization for CIN2+ between 1998 and 2018. The risk of r-CIN2+ was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox models. RESULTS: Data of 3,212 women were retrospectively identified. After a mean follow-up of 47 (±22.2) months, 112 (3.5%) patients developed r-CIN2+. Mean time interval between prior conization and diagnosis of r-CIN2+ was 26.2 (±13.2) months. Via multivariate analysis, presence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types at the time of CIN2+ diagnosis, hazard ratio (HR)=3.40 (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.66–6.95) for HPV16/18 and HR=2.59 (95% CI=1.21–5.55) for HPV types other than 16/18, positive margins at primary conization, HR=4.11 (95% CI=2.04–8.26) and HPV persistence after conization, HR=16.69 (95% CI=8.20–33.9), correlated with r-CIN2+, independently. Considering age-specific HPV types distribution, we observed that HPV16/18 infection correlated to an increased risk of r-CIN2+ only in young women (aged ≤25 years; p=0.031, log-rank test); while in the older population (>25 years) HPV type(s) involved had not impact on r-CIN2+ risk (p>0.200, log-rank test). CONCLUSION: HPV persistence is the main factor predicting r-CIN2+. Infection from HPV16/18 has a detrimental effect in young women, thus highlighting the need of implementing vaccination against HPV in this population. Further prospective studies are warranted for tailoring clinical decision-making for post-conization follow-up on the basis of risk factors.