RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions

Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Schwalm, Christopher R., Glendon, Spencer, Duffy, Philip B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2020
Materias:
Physical Sciences
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7443890/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32747549
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007117117
Descripción
Sumario:Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO(2) emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO(2) emissions in 2100.

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