RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions

Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Schwalm, Christopher R., Glendon, Spencer, Duffy, Philip B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2020
Materias:
Physical Sciences
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7443890/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32747549
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007117117
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author Schwalm, Christopher R.
Glendon, Spencer
Duffy, Philip B.
author_facet Schwalm, Christopher R.
Glendon, Spencer
Duffy, Philip B.
author_sort Schwalm, Christopher R.
collection PubMed
description Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO(2) emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO(2) emissions in 2100.
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spelling pubmed-74438902020-09-01 RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions Schwalm, Christopher R. Glendon, Spencer Duffy, Philip B. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO(2) emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO(2) emissions in 2100. National Academy of Sciences 2020-08-18 2020-08-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7443890/ /pubmed/32747549 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007117117 Text en Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Physical Sciences
Schwalm, Christopher R.
Glendon, Spencer
Duffy, Philip B.
RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions
title RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions
title_full RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions
title_fullStr RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions
title_full_unstemmed RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions
title_short RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO(2) emissions
title_sort rcp8.5 tracks cumulative co(2) emissions
topic Physical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7443890/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32747549
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007117117
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