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The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study

In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Li, Li, Liu, Wen-Hui, Zhang, Zhou-Bin, Liu, Yuan, Chen, Xiao-Guang, Luo, Lei, Ou, Chun-Quan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444500/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32764758
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541
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author Li, Li
Liu, Wen-Hui
Zhang, Zhou-Bin
Liu, Yuan
Chen, Xiao-Guang
Luo, Lei
Ou, Chun-Quan
author_facet Li, Li
Liu, Wen-Hui
Zhang, Zhou-Bin
Liu, Yuan
Chen, Xiao-Guang
Luo, Lei
Ou, Chun-Quan
author_sort Li, Li
collection PubMed
description In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases during 2017–2019 in Guangzhou and weekly data for Foshan and Zhongshan from the China National Notifiable Disease Reporting System, while the data on weekly number of positive ovitraps for adult and larval Aedes albopictus were obtained from Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the number of dengue cases prevented by bringing forward the starting time of Grade III response from September in 2017–2018 to August in 2019 in Guangzhou using a quasi-Poisson regression model and applied the Baron and Kenny’s approach to explore whether mosquito vector density was a mediator of the protective benefit. In Guangzhou, early start of Grade III response was associated with a decline in dengue incidence (relative risk [RR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43–0.70), with 987 (95% CI: 521–1,593) cases averted in 2019. The rate of positive ovitraps also significantly declined (RR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.53–0.77). Moreover, both mosquito vector density and early start of Grade III response was significantly associated with dengue incidence after adjustment for each other. By comparing with the incidence in Foshan and Zhongshan where the Grade III response has not been taken, benefits from the response starting in August were confirmed but not if starting from September. Early start of Grade III response has effectively mitigated the dengue burden in Guangzhou, China, which might be partially through reducing the mosquito vector density. Our findings have important public health implications for development and implementation of dengue control interventions for Guangzhou and other locations with dengue epidemics.
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spelling pubmed-74445002020-08-27 The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study Li, Li Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Zhou-Bin Liu, Yuan Chen, Xiao-Guang Luo, Lei Ou, Chun-Quan PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases during 2017–2019 in Guangzhou and weekly data for Foshan and Zhongshan from the China National Notifiable Disease Reporting System, while the data on weekly number of positive ovitraps for adult and larval Aedes albopictus were obtained from Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the number of dengue cases prevented by bringing forward the starting time of Grade III response from September in 2017–2018 to August in 2019 in Guangzhou using a quasi-Poisson regression model and applied the Baron and Kenny’s approach to explore whether mosquito vector density was a mediator of the protective benefit. In Guangzhou, early start of Grade III response was associated with a decline in dengue incidence (relative risk [RR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43–0.70), with 987 (95% CI: 521–1,593) cases averted in 2019. The rate of positive ovitraps also significantly declined (RR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.53–0.77). Moreover, both mosquito vector density and early start of Grade III response was significantly associated with dengue incidence after adjustment for each other. By comparing with the incidence in Foshan and Zhongshan where the Grade III response has not been taken, benefits from the response starting in August were confirmed but not if starting from September. Early start of Grade III response has effectively mitigated the dengue burden in Guangzhou, China, which might be partially through reducing the mosquito vector density. Our findings have important public health implications for development and implementation of dengue control interventions for Guangzhou and other locations with dengue epidemics. Public Library of Science 2020-08-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7444500/ /pubmed/32764758 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541 Text en © 2020 Li et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Li, Li
Liu, Wen-Hui
Zhang, Zhou-Bin
Liu, Yuan
Chen, Xiao-Guang
Luo, Lei
Ou, Chun-Quan
The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
title The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
title_full The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
title_fullStr The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
title_full_unstemmed The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
title_short The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
title_sort effectiveness of early start of grade iii response to dengue in guangzhou, china: a population-based interrupted time-series study
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444500/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32764758
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541
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