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The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study
In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444500/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32764758 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541 |
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author | Li, Li Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Zhou-Bin Liu, Yuan Chen, Xiao-Guang Luo, Lei Ou, Chun-Quan |
author_facet | Li, Li Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Zhou-Bin Liu, Yuan Chen, Xiao-Guang Luo, Lei Ou, Chun-Quan |
author_sort | Li, Li |
collection | PubMed |
description | In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases during 2017–2019 in Guangzhou and weekly data for Foshan and Zhongshan from the China National Notifiable Disease Reporting System, while the data on weekly number of positive ovitraps for adult and larval Aedes albopictus were obtained from Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the number of dengue cases prevented by bringing forward the starting time of Grade III response from September in 2017–2018 to August in 2019 in Guangzhou using a quasi-Poisson regression model and applied the Baron and Kenny’s approach to explore whether mosquito vector density was a mediator of the protective benefit. In Guangzhou, early start of Grade III response was associated with a decline in dengue incidence (relative risk [RR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43–0.70), with 987 (95% CI: 521–1,593) cases averted in 2019. The rate of positive ovitraps also significantly declined (RR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.53–0.77). Moreover, both mosquito vector density and early start of Grade III response was significantly associated with dengue incidence after adjustment for each other. By comparing with the incidence in Foshan and Zhongshan where the Grade III response has not been taken, benefits from the response starting in August were confirmed but not if starting from September. Early start of Grade III response has effectively mitigated the dengue burden in Guangzhou, China, which might be partially through reducing the mosquito vector density. Our findings have important public health implications for development and implementation of dengue control interventions for Guangzhou and other locations with dengue epidemics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7444500 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74445002020-08-27 The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study Li, Li Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Zhou-Bin Liu, Yuan Chen, Xiao-Guang Luo, Lei Ou, Chun-Quan PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases during 2017–2019 in Guangzhou and weekly data for Foshan and Zhongshan from the China National Notifiable Disease Reporting System, while the data on weekly number of positive ovitraps for adult and larval Aedes albopictus were obtained from Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the number of dengue cases prevented by bringing forward the starting time of Grade III response from September in 2017–2018 to August in 2019 in Guangzhou using a quasi-Poisson regression model and applied the Baron and Kenny’s approach to explore whether mosquito vector density was a mediator of the protective benefit. In Guangzhou, early start of Grade III response was associated with a decline in dengue incidence (relative risk [RR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43–0.70), with 987 (95% CI: 521–1,593) cases averted in 2019. The rate of positive ovitraps also significantly declined (RR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.53–0.77). Moreover, both mosquito vector density and early start of Grade III response was significantly associated with dengue incidence after adjustment for each other. By comparing with the incidence in Foshan and Zhongshan where the Grade III response has not been taken, benefits from the response starting in August were confirmed but not if starting from September. Early start of Grade III response has effectively mitigated the dengue burden in Guangzhou, China, which might be partially through reducing the mosquito vector density. Our findings have important public health implications for development and implementation of dengue control interventions for Guangzhou and other locations with dengue epidemics. Public Library of Science 2020-08-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7444500/ /pubmed/32764758 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541 Text en © 2020 Li et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Li, Li Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Zhou-Bin Liu, Yuan Chen, Xiao-Guang Luo, Lei Ou, Chun-Quan The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study |
title | The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study |
title_full | The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study |
title_fullStr | The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study |
title_full_unstemmed | The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study |
title_short | The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study |
title_sort | effectiveness of early start of grade iii response to dengue in guangzhou, china: a population-based interrupted time-series study |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444500/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32764758 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541 |
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