Untargeted high-resolution plasma metabolomic profiling predicts outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE: Patients with CAD have substantial residual risk of mortality, and whether hitherto unknown small-molecule metabolites and metabolic pathways contribute to this risk is unclear. We sought to determine the predictive value of plasma metabolomic profiling in patients with CAD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Untargeted high-resolution plasma metabolomic profiling of subjects undergoing coronary angiography was performed using liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. Metabolic features and pathways associated with mortality were identified in 454 subjects using metabolome-wide association studies and Mummichog, respectively, and validated in 322 subjects. A metabolomic risk score comprising of log-transformed HR estimates of metabolites that associated with mortality and passed LASSO regression was created and its performance validated. In 776 subjects (66.8 years, 64% male, 17% Black), 433 and 357 features associated with mortality (FDR-adjusted q<0.20); and clustered into 21 and 9 metabolic pathways in first and second cohorts, respectively. Six pathways (urea cycle/amino group, tryptophan, aspartate/asparagine, lysine, tyrosine, and carnitine shuttle) were common. A metabolomic risk score comprising of 7 metabolites independently predicted mortality in the second cohort (HR per 1-unit increase 2.14, 95%CI 1.62, 2.83). Adding the score to a model of clinical predictors improved risk discrimination (delta C-statistic 0.039, 95%CI -0.006, 0.086; and Integrated Discrimination Index 0.084, 95%CI 0.030, 0.151) and reclassification (continuous Net Reclassification Index 23.3%, 95%CI 7.9%, 38.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Differential regulation of six metabolic pathways involved in myocardial energetics and systemic inflammation is independently associated with mortality in patients with CAD. A novel risk score consisting of representative metabolites is highly predictive of mortality.