Predictive model with analysis of the initial spread of COVID-19 in India

OBJECTIVE: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has currently ravaged through the world, resulting in over thirteen million confirmed cases and over five hundred thousand deaths, a complete change in daily life as we know it, worldwide lockdowns, travel restrictions, as well as heightened hygiene measures and physical distancing. Being able to analyse and predict the spread of this epidemic-causing disease is hence of utmost importance now, especially as it would help in the reasoning behind important decisions drastically affecting countries and their people, as well as in ensuring efficient resource and utility management. However, the needs of the people and specific conditions of the spread are varying widely from country to country. Hence, this article has two fold objectives: (i) conduct an in-depth statistical analysis of COVID-19 affected patients in India, (ii) propose a mathematical model for the prediction of spread of COVID-19 cases in India. MATERIALS AND METHOD: There has been limited research in modeling and predicting the spread of COVID-19 in India, owing both to the ongoing nature of the pandemic and limited availability of data. Currently famous SIR and non-SIR based Gauss-error-function and Monte Carlo simulation models do not perform well in the context of COVID-19 spread in India. We propose a ‘change-factor’ or ‘rate-of-change’ based mathematical model to predict the spread of the pandemic in India, with data drawn from hundreds of sources. RESULTS: Average age of affected patients was found to be 38.54 years, with 66.76% males, and 33.24% females. Most patients were in the age range of 18–40 years. Optimal parameter values of the prediction model are identified (α = 1.35, N = 3 and T = 10) by extensive experiments. Over the entire course of time since the outbreak started in India, the model has been 90.36% accurate in predicting the total number of cases the next day, correctly predicting the range in 150 out of the 166 days looked at. CONCLUSION: The proposed system showed an accuracy of 90.36% for prediction since the first COVID-19 case in India, and 96.67% accuracy over the month of April. Predicted number of cases for the next day is found to be a function of the numbers over the last 3 days, but with an ‘increase’ factor influenced by the last 10 days. It is noticed that males are affected more than females. It is also noticed that in India, the number of people in each age bucket is steadily decreasing, with the largest number of adults infected being the youngest ones—a departure from the world trend. The model is self-correcting as it improves its predictions every day, by incorporating the previous day's data into the trend-line for the following days. This model can thus be used dynamically not only to predict the spread of COVID-19 in India, but also to check the effect of various government measures in a short span of time after they are implemented.