Prediction of local COVID-19 spread in Heidelberg

Since the first identified case of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, the disease has developed into a pandemic, imposing a major challenge for health authorities and hospitals worldwide. Mathematical transmission models can help hospitals to anticipate and prepare for an upcoming wave of patients by forecas...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Koeppel, Lisa, Gottschalk, Claudius, Welker, Andreas, Knorr, Britta, Denkinger, Claudia M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: F1000 Research Limited 2020
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445560/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32864101
http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.23034.1
Descripción
Sumario:Since the first identified case of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, the disease has developed into a pandemic, imposing a major challenge for health authorities and hospitals worldwide. Mathematical transmission models can help hospitals to anticipate and prepare for an upcoming wave of patients by forecasting the time and severity of infections. Taking the city of Heidelberg as an example, we predict the ongoing spread of the disease for the next months including hospital and ventilator capacity and consider the possible impact of currently imposed countermeasures.

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