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Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016

OBJECTIVE: To examine the trends in overall COPD mortality, as well as trends in in-hospital morbidity and mortality due to COPD, in Brazil, and to validate predictive models. METHODS: This was a population-based study with a time-series analysis of cause-specific morbidity and mortality data for in...

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Autores principales: Gonçalves-Macedo, Liana, Lacerda, Eliana Mattos, Markman-Filho, Brivaldo, Lundgren, Fernando Luiz Cavalcanti, Luna, Carlos Feitosa
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Sociedade Brasileira de Pneumologia e Tisiologia 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7447544/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31778424
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-3713/e20180402
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author Gonçalves-Macedo, Liana
Lacerda, Eliana Mattos
Markman-Filho, Brivaldo
Lundgren, Fernando Luiz Cavalcanti
Luna, Carlos Feitosa
author_facet Gonçalves-Macedo, Liana
Lacerda, Eliana Mattos
Markman-Filho, Brivaldo
Lundgren, Fernando Luiz Cavalcanti
Luna, Carlos Feitosa
author_sort Gonçalves-Macedo, Liana
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: To examine the trends in overall COPD mortality, as well as trends in in-hospital morbidity and mortality due to COPD, in Brazil, and to validate predictive models. METHODS: This was a population-based study with a time-series analysis of cause-specific morbidity and mortality data for individuals ≥ 40 years of age, obtained from national health information systems for the 2000-2016 period. Morbidity and mortality rates, stratified by gender and age group, were calculated for the same period. We used regression analyses to examine the temporal trends and double exponential smoothing in our analysis of the predictive models for 2017. RESULTS: Over the study period, COPD mortality rates trended downward in Brazil. For both genders, there was a downward trend in the southern, southeastern, and central-western regions. In-hospital morbidity rates declined in all regions, more so in the south and southeast. There were significant changes in the number of hospitalizations, length of hospital stay, and hospital expenses. The predictive models for 2017 showed error rates below 9% and were therefore validated. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, COPD age-adjusted mortality rates have declined in regions with higher socioeconomic indices, where there has been an even sharper decrease in all in-hospital morbidity and mortality variables. In addition to factors such as better treatment adherence and reduced smoking rates, socioeconomic factors appear to be involved in controlling COPD morbidity and mortality. The predictive models estimated here might also facilitate decision making and the planning of health policies aimed at treating COPD.
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spelling pubmed-74475442020-09-04 Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016 Gonçalves-Macedo, Liana Lacerda, Eliana Mattos Markman-Filho, Brivaldo Lundgren, Fernando Luiz Cavalcanti Luna, Carlos Feitosa J Bras Pneumol Original Article OBJECTIVE: To examine the trends in overall COPD mortality, as well as trends in in-hospital morbidity and mortality due to COPD, in Brazil, and to validate predictive models. METHODS: This was a population-based study with a time-series analysis of cause-specific morbidity and mortality data for individuals ≥ 40 years of age, obtained from national health information systems for the 2000-2016 period. Morbidity and mortality rates, stratified by gender and age group, were calculated for the same period. We used regression analyses to examine the temporal trends and double exponential smoothing in our analysis of the predictive models for 2017. RESULTS: Over the study period, COPD mortality rates trended downward in Brazil. For both genders, there was a downward trend in the southern, southeastern, and central-western regions. In-hospital morbidity rates declined in all regions, more so in the south and southeast. There were significant changes in the number of hospitalizations, length of hospital stay, and hospital expenses. The predictive models for 2017 showed error rates below 9% and were therefore validated. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, COPD age-adjusted mortality rates have declined in regions with higher socioeconomic indices, where there has been an even sharper decrease in all in-hospital morbidity and mortality variables. In addition to factors such as better treatment adherence and reduced smoking rates, socioeconomic factors appear to be involved in controlling COPD morbidity and mortality. The predictive models estimated here might also facilitate decision making and the planning of health policies aimed at treating COPD. Sociedade Brasileira de Pneumologia e Tisiologia 2019 /pmc/articles/PMC7447544/ /pubmed/31778424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-3713/e20180402 Text en © 2019 Sociedade Brasileira de Pneumologia e Tisiologia https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
spellingShingle Original Article
Gonçalves-Macedo, Liana
Lacerda, Eliana Mattos
Markman-Filho, Brivaldo
Lundgren, Fernando Luiz Cavalcanti
Luna, Carlos Feitosa
Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016
title Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016
title_full Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016
title_fullStr Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016
title_full_unstemmed Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016
title_short Trends in morbidity and mortality from COPD in Brazil, 2000 to 2016
title_sort trends in morbidity and mortality from copd in brazil, 2000 to 2016
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7447544/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31778424
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-3713/e20180402
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