The Contagion of Pneumonia in Older Persons: An Application of the Bass Diffusion Model

This aims to provide an understanding of the spread of pneumonia through analysis of the interaction between infected and potentially infected. Data from 2010 to 2018 on Pneumonia morbidity among older persons age 65 and above was extracted from the Department of Health Field Health Service Information System (FHSIS) annual reports. The data were used to represent the cumulative adopters by fitting them to the Bass diffusion model using the Bass Forecasting Spreadsheet. The number of new adopters was graphed to forecast the diffusion of Pneumonia. The number of cases is expected to increase. The adoption rate in 2024 will be around 45% of the current population. Morbidity of pneumonia is expected to peak in the year 2200, 190 years after the first data. The use of the model provided an insight into the cumulative nature of pneumonia infection due to the interaction between infected and the potentially infected.