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Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, a...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7449412/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32845922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237780 |
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author | Royce, Katherine Fu, Feng |
author_facet | Royce, Katherine Fu, Feng |
author_sort | Royce, Katherine |
collection | PubMed |
description | Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, and this transmission route will only become more likely as agriculture and trade intensifies around the world. Passage through an intermediate host enables many otherwise rare diseases to become better adapted to humans, and so understanding this process with accurate mathematical models is necessary to prevent epidemics of emerging zoonoses, guide policy interventions in public health, and predict the behavior of an epidemic. In this paper, we account for a zoonotic disease mutating in an intermediate host by introducing a new mathematical model for disease transmission among three species. We present a model of these disease dynamics, including the equilibria of the system and the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, finding that in the presence of biologically realistic interspecies transmission parameters, a zoonotic disease with the capacity to mutate in an intermediate host population can establish itself in humans even if its R(0) in humans is less than 1. This result and model can be used to predict the behavior of any zoonosis with an intermediate host and assist efforts to protect public health. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7449412 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74494122020-09-02 Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host Royce, Katherine Fu, Feng PLoS One Research Article Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, and this transmission route will only become more likely as agriculture and trade intensifies around the world. Passage through an intermediate host enables many otherwise rare diseases to become better adapted to humans, and so understanding this process with accurate mathematical models is necessary to prevent epidemics of emerging zoonoses, guide policy interventions in public health, and predict the behavior of an epidemic. In this paper, we account for a zoonotic disease mutating in an intermediate host by introducing a new mathematical model for disease transmission among three species. We present a model of these disease dynamics, including the equilibria of the system and the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, finding that in the presence of biologically realistic interspecies transmission parameters, a zoonotic disease with the capacity to mutate in an intermediate host population can establish itself in humans even if its R(0) in humans is less than 1. This result and model can be used to predict the behavior of any zoonosis with an intermediate host and assist efforts to protect public health. Public Library of Science 2020-08-26 /pmc/articles/PMC7449412/ /pubmed/32845922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237780 Text en © 2020 Royce, Fu http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Royce, Katherine Fu, Feng Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
title | Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
title_full | Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
title_fullStr | Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
title_full_unstemmed | Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
title_short | Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
title_sort | mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7449412/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32845922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237780 |
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