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Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host

Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Royce, Katherine, Fu, Feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7449412/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32845922
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237780
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author Royce, Katherine
Fu, Feng
author_facet Royce, Katherine
Fu, Feng
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description Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, and this transmission route will only become more likely as agriculture and trade intensifies around the world. Passage through an intermediate host enables many otherwise rare diseases to become better adapted to humans, and so understanding this process with accurate mathematical models is necessary to prevent epidemics of emerging zoonoses, guide policy interventions in public health, and predict the behavior of an epidemic. In this paper, we account for a zoonotic disease mutating in an intermediate host by introducing a new mathematical model for disease transmission among three species. We present a model of these disease dynamics, including the equilibria of the system and the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, finding that in the presence of biologically realistic interspecies transmission parameters, a zoonotic disease with the capacity to mutate in an intermediate host population can establish itself in humans even if its R(0) in humans is less than 1. This result and model can be used to predict the behavior of any zoonosis with an intermediate host and assist efforts to protect public health.
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spelling pubmed-74494122020-09-02 Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host Royce, Katherine Fu, Feng PLoS One Research Article Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, and this transmission route will only become more likely as agriculture and trade intensifies around the world. Passage through an intermediate host enables many otherwise rare diseases to become better adapted to humans, and so understanding this process with accurate mathematical models is necessary to prevent epidemics of emerging zoonoses, guide policy interventions in public health, and predict the behavior of an epidemic. In this paper, we account for a zoonotic disease mutating in an intermediate host by introducing a new mathematical model for disease transmission among three species. We present a model of these disease dynamics, including the equilibria of the system and the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, finding that in the presence of biologically realistic interspecies transmission parameters, a zoonotic disease with the capacity to mutate in an intermediate host population can establish itself in humans even if its R(0) in humans is less than 1. This result and model can be used to predict the behavior of any zoonosis with an intermediate host and assist efforts to protect public health. Public Library of Science 2020-08-26 /pmc/articles/PMC7449412/ /pubmed/32845922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237780 Text en © 2020 Royce, Fu http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Royce, Katherine
Fu, Feng
Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
title Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
title_full Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
title_fullStr Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
title_full_unstemmed Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
title_short Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
title_sort mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7449412/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32845922
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237780
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