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Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and governm...

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Autores principales: Price, David J, Shearer, Freya M, Meehan, Michael T, McBryde, Emma, Moss, Robert, Golding, Nick, Conway, Eamon J, Dawson, Peter, Cromer, Deborah, Wood, James, Abbott, Sam, McVernon, Jodie, McCaw, James M
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7449695/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32788039
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58785
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author Price, David J
Shearer, Freya M
Meehan, Michael T
McBryde, Emma
Moss, Robert
Golding, Nick
Conway, Eamon J
Dawson, Peter
Cromer, Deborah
Wood, James
Abbott, Sam
McVernon, Jodie
McCaw, James M
author_facet Price, David J
Shearer, Freya M
Meehan, Michael T
McBryde, Emma
Moss, Robert
Golding, Nick
Conway, Eamon J
Dawson, Peter
Cromer, Deborah
Wood, James
Abbott, Sam
McVernon, Jodie
McCaw, James M
author_sort Price, David J
collection PubMed
description As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).
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spelling pubmed-74496952020-08-27 Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic Price, David J Shearer, Freya M Meehan, Michael T McBryde, Emma Moss, Robert Golding, Nick Conway, Eamon J Dawson, Peter Cromer, Deborah Wood, James Abbott, Sam McVernon, Jodie McCaw, James M eLife Epidemiology and Global Health As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April). eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2020-08-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7449695/ /pubmed/32788039 http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58785 Text en © 2020, Price et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Epidemiology and Global Health
Price, David J
Shearer, Freya M
Meehan, Michael T
McBryde, Emma
Moss, Robert
Golding, Nick
Conway, Eamon J
Dawson, Peter
Cromer, Deborah
Wood, James
Abbott, Sam
McVernon, Jodie
McCaw, James M
Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
title Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
title_full Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
title_fullStr Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
title_short Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
title_sort early analysis of the australian covid-19 epidemic
topic Epidemiology and Global Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7449695/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32788039
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58785
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