Evaluating the predictive performance of malaria antibodies and FCGR3B gene polymorphisms on Plasmodium falciparum infection outcome: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Malaria antigen-specific antibodies and polymorphisms in host receptors involved in antibody functionality have been associated with different outcomes of Plasmodium falciparum infections. Thus, to identify key prospective malaria antigens for vaccine development, there is the need to evaluate the associations between malaria antibodies and antibody dependent host factors with more rigorous statistical methods. In this study, different statistical models were used to evaluate the predictive performance of malaria-specific antibodies and host gene polymorphisms on P. falciparum infection in a longitudinal cohort study involving Ghanaian children. METHODS: Models with different functional forms were built using known predictors (age, sickle cell status, blood group status, parasite density, and mosquito bed net use) and malaria antigen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig) G and IgG subclasses and FCGR3B polymorphisms shown to mediate antibody-dependent cellular functions. Malaria antigens studied were Merozoite surface proteins (MSP-1 and MSP-3), Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP)-R0, R2, and the Apical Membrane Antigen (AMA-1). The models were evaluated through visualization and assessment of differences between the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and Brier Score estimated by suitable internal cross-validation designs. RESULTS: This study found that the FCGR3B-c.233C>A genotype and IgG against AMA1 were relatively better compared to the other antibodies and FCGR3B genotypes studied in classifying or predicting malaria risk among children. CONCLUSIONS: The data supports the P. falciparum, AMA1 as an important malaria vaccine antigen, while FCGR3B-c.233C>A under the additive and dominant models of inheritance could be an important modifier of the effect of malaria protective antibodies.