Tailoring integrated care services for high-risk patients with multiple chronic conditions: a risk stratification approach using cluster analysis

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to produce a risk stratification within a population of high-risk patients with multiple chronic conditions who are currently treated under a case management program and to explore the existence of different risk subgroups. Different care strategies were then suggested for healthcare reform according to the characteristics of each subgroup. METHODS: All high-risk multimorbid patients from a case management program in the Navarra region of Spain were included in the study (n = 885). A 1-year mortality risk score was estimated for each patient by logistic regression. The population was then divided into subgroups according to the patients’ estimated risk scores. We used cluster analysis to produce the stratification with Ward’s linkage hierarchical algorithm. The characteristics of the resulting subgroups were analyzed, and post hoc pairwise tests were performed. RESULTS: Three distinct risk strata were found, containing 45, 38 and 17% of patients. Age increased from cluster to cluster, and functional status, clinical severity, nursing needs and nutritional values deteriorated. Patients in cluster 1 had lower renal deterioration values, and patients in cluster 3 had higher rates of pressure skin ulcers, higher rates of cerebrovascular disease and dementia, and lower prevalence rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the existence of distinct subgroups within a population of high-risk patients with multiple chronic conditions. Current case management integrated care programs use a uniform treatment strategy for patients who have diverse needs. Alternative treatment strategies should be considered to fit the needs of each patient subgroup.