Mathematical modelling of population and food storage dynamics in a honey bee colony infected with Nosema ceranae

Unusually high wintering losses of Apis mellifera in recent years has raised concerns regarding the well-being and productivity of honey bees across the globe. While these losses are likely multi-factorial, a proposed contributor are diseases, including those caused by parasites. We formulate and present a mathematical model for a colony of Apis mellifera honey bees infected with the microsporidian parasite Nosema ceranae. The model is numerically analyzed to determine the effects of N. ceranae infection on population and food storage dynamics and their subsequent implications towards colony survival and annual honey yield. Depending on the strength of disease, it is possible for either parasite fadeout, co-existence between bees and N. ceranae, or colony failure to occur. In all cases, the yield of honey collected by the beekeeper is reduced. We further extend the model to include various treatment schemes with the, now discontinued, antimicrobial fumagillin. Treatment with fumagillin can reduce the risk of colony failure and will increase honey yield compared to when no treatment is applied.