Life under lockdown: Illustrating tradeoffs in South Africa’s response to COVID-19

This research note sheds light on the first three months of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa, where the virus has spread faster than anywhere else in the region. At the same time, South Africa has been recognized globally for its swift and efficient early response. We consider the impact of this response on different segments of the population, looking at changes in mobility by province to highlight variation in the willingness and ability of different subsets of the population to comply with lockdown orders. Using anonymized mobile phone data, we show that South Africans in all provinces reduced their mobility substantially in response to the government’s lockdown orders. Statistical regression analysis shows that such mobility reductions are significantly and negatively associated with COVID-19 growth rates two weeks later. These findings add an important perspective to the emerging literature on the efficacy of shelter-in-place orders, which to date is dominated by studies of the United States. We show that people were particularly willing and able to act in the provinces hit hardest by the pandemic in its initial stages. At the same time, compliance with lockdown orders presented a greater challenge among rural populations and others with more precarious livelihoods. By reflecting on South Africa’s inequality profile and results of a recent survey, we demonstrate how the country’s response may deepen preexisting divides. This cautionary tale is relevant beyond South Africa, as much of the continent – and the world – grapples with similar tradeoffs. Along with measures to contain the spread of disease, governments and other development focused organizations should seriously consider how to offset the costs faced by already marginalized populations.