Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector of a Small Island Developing State: A case study for the Bahamas

This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of climate change to the tourism sector on the islands of New Providence and adjacent Paradise Island in the Bahamas. The assessment was carried out by conducting a geospatial analysis of tourism establishments at risk using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We combined the geospatial analysis with publicly available databases to assess the integrated climate-related impacts pertaining to a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) economy. Our study estimated that many tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties at risk increases with a future scenario of a 1 m rise in sea level. While sea level rise (SLR) by itself only threatens a small number of properties, when combined with weak (Category 1), moderate (Category 3) and strong (Category 5) storms the resulting coastal flooding impacts 34%, 69%, and 83% of the tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts), respectively. In addition to flooding, properties are also susceptible to coastal erosion with 28% of the total hotels and resorts on the two islands being situated within 0–50 m and 60% of the tourism infrastructure within 0–100 m of the coastline. Considering the economic importance of the sector, the potential impacts on the tourism infrastructure will cause significant losses in revenue and employment for the two islands. Furthermore, the majority of the tourism on these islands is beach-based and visitor expenditures will decline due to their vulnerability. These losses will have far-reaching social-economic consequences for the Bahamas. Our findings reveal a need for integrated coastal zone management that incorporates tourism management strategies with adaptation measures to deal with climate change.