Diagnostic Model for In-Hospital Bleeding in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Algorithm Development and Validation

BACKGROUND: Bleeding complications in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have been associated with increased risk of subsequent adverse consequences. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to develop and externally validate a diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding. METHODS: We performed multivariate logistic regression of a cohort for hospitalized patients with acute STEMI in the emergency department of a university hospital. Participants: The model development data set was obtained from 4262 hospitalized patients with acute STEMI from January 2002 to December 2013. A set of 6015 hospitalized patients with acute STEMI from January 2014 to August 2019 were used for external validation. We used logistic regression analysis to analyze the risk factors of in-hospital bleeding in the development data set. We developed a diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding and constructed a nomogram. We assessed the predictive performance of the diagnostic model in the validation data sets by examining measures of discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: In-hospital bleeding occurred in 112 of 4262 participants (2.6%) in the development data set. The strongest predictors of in-hospital bleeding were advanced age and high Killip classification. Logistic regression analysis showed differences between the groups with and without in-hospital bleeding in age (odds ratio [OR] 1.047, 95% CI 1.029-1.066; P<.001), Killip III (OR 3.265, 95% CI 2.008-5.31; P<.001), and Killip IV (OR 5.133, 95% CI 3.196-8.242; P<.001). We developed a diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.777 (SD 0.021, 95% CI 0.73576-0.81823). We constructed a nomogram based on age and Killip classification. In-hospital bleeding occurred in 117 of 6015 participants (1.9%) in the validation data set. The AUC was 0.7234 (SD 0.0252, 95% CI 0.67392-0.77289). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding in patients with acute STEMI. The discrimination, calibration, and DCA of the model were found to be satisfactory. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR.org ChiCTR1900027578; http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=45926