Predicting value of five anthropometric measures in metabolic syndrome among Jiangsu Province, China

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a condition of metabolic disorders, is now causing large disease burden around the world. This study aimed to update the prevalence of MetS in Jiangsu Province of China and evaluate the predicting value of five anthropometric measures including waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), a body shape index (ABSI) and body roundness index (BRI) in MetS. METHODS: 8040 participants from 12 survey sites were enrolled into this cross-sectional study by multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method from 2014 nutrition and diet investigation project in Jiangsu Province. The transformation of sex-specific z-score made the comparison meaningful when conducting the logistic analysis between anthropometric indices and MetS. The abilities of anthropometric indices to predict MetS were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Delong test was applied to compare area under different ROC curves. RESULTS: The prevalence of MetS in Jiangsu Province was 35.2% and the standardized prevalence was 34.8%. WC, BMI, WHtR, ABSI and BRI z-scores were positively related to MetS and its components. WC, WHtR and BRI z-score had stronger associations with MetS than BMI and ABSI in both male and female population. WC, WHtR and BRI had larger area under ROC curve than BMI and ABSI in male and female. WC in men had the largest area under the ROC curve, significantly higher than the other four measures of BMI, WHtR, ABSI and BRI (Z value = 9.08, 2.88, 16.73, 2.75 respectively). Among women, WC, WHtR and BRI had larger area under the ROC curve than BMI and ABSI, but the area under the WC, WHtR and BRI curve were not significantly different after the pairwise comparison by the Delong test. The optimal cut-off values of WC, WHtR and BRI for predicting MetS was 85.25 cm, 0.52 and 3.61 in male, 80.05 cm, 0.51 and 3.83 in female. CONCLUSION: MetS has become one of the major chronic diseases in Jiangsu Province. WC was better than other four indices in predicting MetS among male population in Jiangsu. WC, WHtR and BRI had superior abilities than BMI/ABSI in predicting MetS among female population.