Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis in Korea through to the Year 2040

Despite efforts to reduce its incidence, tuberculosis continues to burden the rapidly aging Korean society. This study aimed to investigate the current trend of tuberculosis burden in Korea and its projections to 2040. We used National Health Insurance claims data to calculate the disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis in Korea. Disability-adjusted life years were measured by summing the years of life lost and the years lived with disability using an incidence-based approach. We modeled the incidence rates using a time-series model for the projection of disability-adjusted life years accrued from 2020 to 2040. The total disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis were 69, 64, 59, and 49 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 population in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. In both sexes, disability-adjusted life years were the highest in those aged ≥80 years. Projected disability-adjusted life years showed a descending trend from 38 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 in 2020, to 14 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 in 2040. Conversely, the projected disability-adjusted life years increased among females aged ≥80 years. Although the tuberculosis burden in Korea is decreasing, a high burden remains among the elderly. Therefore, interventions targeting those vulnerable are required.