Rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalization in British Columbia and Ontario: time course of flattening the relevant curve

The objective of social distancing is to slow the rate of viral transmission and thereby spread out the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases over time (i.e., flattening the curve) so that a surge of patients will not overwhelm the capacity of the healthcare system. Given this objective, the specific curve that requires flattening is that of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations. In this context, we evaluated the rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalization in British Columbia (BC) and Ontario to see if either province shows evidence of flattening the relevant curve. From late March to mid-June 2020, the cumulative rate of COVID-19-associated hospitalization in BC has indeed shown evidence of flattening, whereas that in Ontario has increased linearly. The cumulative hospitalization rate in Ontario first surpassed that of BC on April 14. By June 18, the respective hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were 27.86 for Ontario and 9.96 for BC. In both provinces, the cumulative hospitalization rate has remained lower than that of comparator US states. In conclusion, there is evidence of flattening the relevant curve in BC but not yet in Ontario. The comparison with BC underscores the need for continued caution with the relaxation of social distancing efforts in Ontario.