Using the perceptual past to predict the perceptual future influences the perceived present – A novel ERP paradigm

The information available through our senses is noisy, incomplete, and to varying degrees ambiguous. The perceptual system must create stable and reliable percepts out of this restricted information. It solves this perceptual inference problem by integrating memories of previous percepts and making predictions about the perceptual future. Using ambiguous figures and a new experimental approach, we studied whether generating predictions based on regularities in the past affects processing of the present and how this is done. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were measured to investigate whether a highly regular temporal context of either ambiguous or unambiguous stimulus variants differently affects processing of a current stimulus and/or task execution. Further, we tested whether symbolic announcements about the immediate perceptual future can replace the past experience of regularities as a source for making predictions. Both ERP and reaction time varied as a function of stimulus ambiguity in the temporal context of a present stimulus. No such effects were found with symbolic announcements. Our results indicate that predictions about the future automatically alter processing of the present, even if the predictions are irrelevant for the present percept and task. However, direct experiences of past regularities are necessary for predicting the future whereas symbolic information about the future is not sufficient.