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Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young

(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19’s waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second wave...

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Autores principales: Seligmann, Hervé, Iggui, Siham, Rachdi, Mustapha, Vuillerme, Nicolas, Demongeot, Jacques
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7464149/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32823981
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226
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author Seligmann, Hervé
Iggui, Siham
Rachdi, Mustapha
Vuillerme, Nicolas
Demongeot, Jacques
author_facet Seligmann, Hervé
Iggui, Siham
Rachdi, Mustapha
Vuillerme, Nicolas
Demongeot, Jacques
author_sort Seligmann, Hervé
collection PubMed
description (1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19’s waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5–7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain.
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spelling pubmed-74641492020-09-04 Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young Seligmann, Hervé Iggui, Siham Rachdi, Mustapha Vuillerme, Nicolas Demongeot, Jacques Biology (Basel) Communication (1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19’s waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5–7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain. MDPI 2020-08-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7464149/ /pubmed/32823981 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Communication
Seligmann, Hervé
Iggui, Siham
Rachdi, Mustapha
Vuillerme, Nicolas
Demongeot, Jacques
Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young
title Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young
title_full Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young
title_fullStr Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young
title_full_unstemmed Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young
title_short Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young
title_sort inverted covariate effects for first versus mutated second wave covid-19: high temperature spread biased for young
topic Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7464149/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32823981
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226
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