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Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a serious health concern as it can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatoma. We investigated past trends in the prevalence of NAFLD and related factors among Korean men and women from 1998 to 2017 and predicted their future prevalence among Korean men. We...

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Autores principales: Kang, Seo Young, Kim, Ye-Jee, Park, Hye Soon
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7465994/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32823604
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9082626
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author Kang, Seo Young
Kim, Ye-Jee
Park, Hye Soon
author_facet Kang, Seo Young
Kim, Ye-Jee
Park, Hye Soon
author_sort Kang, Seo Young
collection PubMed
description Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a serious health concern as it can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatoma. We investigated past trends in the prevalence of NAFLD and related factors among Korean men and women from 1998 to 2017 and predicted their future prevalence among Korean men. We used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I–VII (KNHANES). NAFLD was defined as a hepatic steatosis index of >36. Subjects with viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, cancer, pregnancy, and a habit of drinking ≥30 g alcohol per occasion were excluded. We evaluated the prevalence trends of NAFLD, obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity in each KNHANES wave. For future prevalence predictions, average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were estimated from the joinpoint model. In men, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately 11 percentage points in the past 19 years, reaching 30.7% in wave VII. Prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity also increased. The AAPC of NAFLD prevalence was 2.3% per year, and the estimated NAFLD prevalence in 2030 and 2035 was 39.1% and 43.8%, respectively. The forecasted prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, and high fat intake among Korean men in 2035 was 65.0%, 52.2%, and 23.5%, respectively. The estimated future prevalence of NAFLD and related factors was considerably high in the younger age group (19–45 year). In women, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately three percentage points in the past 19 years; however, this increase was not significant in the multivariate analysis. Public strategies to manage obesity, abdominal obesity, and unhealthy lifestyles are needed to prevent NAFLD.
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spelling pubmed-74659942020-09-14 Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035 Kang, Seo Young Kim, Ye-Jee Park, Hye Soon J Clin Med Article Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a serious health concern as it can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatoma. We investigated past trends in the prevalence of NAFLD and related factors among Korean men and women from 1998 to 2017 and predicted their future prevalence among Korean men. We used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I–VII (KNHANES). NAFLD was defined as a hepatic steatosis index of >36. Subjects with viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, cancer, pregnancy, and a habit of drinking ≥30 g alcohol per occasion were excluded. We evaluated the prevalence trends of NAFLD, obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity in each KNHANES wave. For future prevalence predictions, average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were estimated from the joinpoint model. In men, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately 11 percentage points in the past 19 years, reaching 30.7% in wave VII. Prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity also increased. The AAPC of NAFLD prevalence was 2.3% per year, and the estimated NAFLD prevalence in 2030 and 2035 was 39.1% and 43.8%, respectively. The forecasted prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, and high fat intake among Korean men in 2035 was 65.0%, 52.2%, and 23.5%, respectively. The estimated future prevalence of NAFLD and related factors was considerably high in the younger age group (19–45 year). In women, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately three percentage points in the past 19 years; however, this increase was not significant in the multivariate analysis. Public strategies to manage obesity, abdominal obesity, and unhealthy lifestyles are needed to prevent NAFLD. MDPI 2020-08-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7465994/ /pubmed/32823604 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9082626 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kang, Seo Young
Kim, Ye-Jee
Park, Hye Soon
Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035
title Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035
title_full Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035
title_fullStr Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035
title_full_unstemmed Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035
title_short Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035
title_sort trends in the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and its future predictions in korean men, 1998–2035
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7465994/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32823604
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9082626
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