Risk factors for cervical cancer in women in China: A meta-model

OBJECTIVES: Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality in women in China. This analysis is a quantitative evidence synthesis pooling information about each cervical cancer risk factor. METHODS: A meta-model was developed to estimate the risk of cervical cancer for a woman aged 18–85 years in Mainland China based on her risk profile at the time of assessment. The meta-model was built using findings of a systematic literature review that identified 21 case–control studies reporting data on 105 groups of cervical cancer risk factors in Chinese women. Extracted risk factors were ranked, and 17 were selected by Chinese clinical experts for inclusion in the meta-model. Risk equations were developed for each selected study. Predicted risks for each study were dependent on the risk profile under consideration and study-specific risks were pooled to an overall risk estimate using a random-effects meta-analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using 100 artificial patient profiles (in the absence of patient data). RESULTS: Predicted risks for the 100 profiles suggested that the model had good face validity and could differentiate between high and non-high cervical cancer risk profiles. CONCLUSION: This innovative meta-model approach assesses cervical cancer risk in Chinese women from a holistic perspective and could be adapted for other diseases and settings.