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Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda

The COVID-19 pandemic and public health “lockdown” responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19...

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Autores principales: Bell, David, Hansen, Kristian Schultz, Kiragga, Agnes N., Kambugu, Andrew, Kissa, John, Mbonye, Anthony K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470592/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32705975
http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546
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author Bell, David
Hansen, Kristian Schultz
Kiragga, Agnes N.
Kambugu, Andrew
Kissa, John
Mbonye, Anthony K.
author_facet Bell, David
Hansen, Kristian Schultz
Kiragga, Agnes N.
Kambugu, Andrew
Kissa, John
Mbonye, Anthony K.
author_sort Bell, David
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 pandemic and public health “lockdown” responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non–COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non–COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children’s health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.
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spelling pubmed-74705922020-09-04 Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda Bell, David Hansen, Kristian Schultz Kiragga, Agnes N. Kambugu, Andrew Kissa, John Mbonye, Anthony K. Am J Trop Med Hyg Articles The COVID-19 pandemic and public health “lockdown” responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non–COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non–COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children’s health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2020-09 2020-07-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7470592/ /pubmed/32705975 http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546 Text en © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Articles
Bell, David
Hansen, Kristian Schultz
Kiragga, Agnes N.
Kambugu, Andrew
Kissa, John
Mbonye, Anthony K.
Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
title Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
title_full Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
title_fullStr Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
title_short Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
title_sort predicting the impact of covid-19 and the potential impact of the public health response on disease burden in uganda
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470592/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32705975
http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546
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