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Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda
The COVID-19 pandemic and public health “lockdown” responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470592/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32705975 http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546 |
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author | Bell, David Hansen, Kristian Schultz Kiragga, Agnes N. Kambugu, Andrew Kissa, John Mbonye, Anthony K. |
author_facet | Bell, David Hansen, Kristian Schultz Kiragga, Agnes N. Kambugu, Andrew Kissa, John Mbonye, Anthony K. |
author_sort | Bell, David |
collection | PubMed |
description | The COVID-19 pandemic and public health “lockdown” responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non–COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non–COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children’s health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7470592 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74705922020-09-04 Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda Bell, David Hansen, Kristian Schultz Kiragga, Agnes N. Kambugu, Andrew Kissa, John Mbonye, Anthony K. Am J Trop Med Hyg Articles The COVID-19 pandemic and public health “lockdown” responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non–COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non–COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children’s health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2020-09 2020-07-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7470592/ /pubmed/32705975 http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546 Text en © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Articles Bell, David Hansen, Kristian Schultz Kiragga, Agnes N. Kambugu, Andrew Kissa, John Mbonye, Anthony K. Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda |
title | Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda |
title_full | Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda |
title_fullStr | Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda |
title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda |
title_short | Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda |
title_sort | predicting the impact of covid-19 and the potential impact of the public health response on disease burden in uganda |
topic | Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470592/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32705975 http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546 |
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