A New Approach to Estimate from Monitored Demand Data the Limit of the Coverage of Electricity Demand through Photovoltaics in Large Electricity Grids

In a traditional large electricity grid without storage, there is a limit to the maximum photovoltaic energy that can be consumed as the demand and generation may not match, either in magnitude or in time. This paper aims to provide a new method to estimate the limit of the coverage of electricity demand by photovoltaics in large electricity grids. This new method eliminates the random and the periodic variability over time as it is based either on the load duration curve for demand and the output duration curve for PV generation. We will assume there is no energy storage or inter-network exchanges. Moreover, conditions for the best scenario for photovoltaics are provided in order to estimate the upper limit: photovoltaic overgeneration is not considered and a complete system flexibility is assumed. The knowledge of this limit will manage to provide not only a reference for the planning of the energy sector but also to analyze the viability of the integration of future photovoltaic projects in the electrical system. In order to illustrate the method, several large electricity grids have been analysed in order to determine the aforementioned limit. Values between 19.3% and 29.9% have been obtained.