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Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida

Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal va...

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Autores principales: Lord, Cynthia C., Lounibos, L. Philip, Pohedra, Joseph J., Alto, Barry W.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7472381/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32751566
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12080830
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author Lord, Cynthia C.
Lounibos, L. Philip
Pohedra, Joseph J.
Alto, Barry W.
author_facet Lord, Cynthia C.
Lounibos, L. Philip
Pohedra, Joseph J.
Alto, Barry W.
author_sort Lord, Cynthia C.
collection PubMed
description Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for three values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions.
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spelling pubmed-74723812020-09-04 Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida Lord, Cynthia C. Lounibos, L. Philip Pohedra, Joseph J. Alto, Barry W. Viruses Article Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for three values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions. MDPI 2020-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7472381/ /pubmed/32751566 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12080830 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Lord, Cynthia C.
Lounibos, L. Philip
Pohedra, Joseph J.
Alto, Barry W.
Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
title Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
title_full Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
title_fullStr Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
title_full_unstemmed Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
title_short Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
title_sort effects of mosquito biology on modeled chikungunya virus invasion potential in florida
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7472381/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32751566
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12080830
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