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Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India

A mathematical analysis of patterns for the evolution of COVID-19 cases is key to the development of reliable and robust predictive models potentially leading to efficient and effective governance against COVID-19. Towards this objective, we study and analyze the temporal growth pattern of COVID-19...

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Autores principales: Asad, Ali, Srivastava, Siddharth, Verma, Mahendra K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Singapore 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474332/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00166-y
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author Asad, Ali
Srivastava, Siddharth
Verma, Mahendra K.
author_facet Asad, Ali
Srivastava, Siddharth
Verma, Mahendra K.
author_sort Asad, Ali
collection PubMed
description A mathematical analysis of patterns for the evolution of COVID-19 cases is key to the development of reliable and robust predictive models potentially leading to efficient and effective governance against COVID-19. Towards this objective, we study and analyze the temporal growth pattern of COVID-19 infection and death counts in various states of India. Our analysis up to August 4, 2020, shows that several states (namely Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal) have reached [Formula: see text] power-law growth, while Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh exhibit linear growth. Delhi has reached [Formula: see text] phase and may flatten in the coming days. However, some states have deviated from the universal pattern of the epidemic curve. Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan show a gradual rise in the power-law regime, which is not the usual trend. Also, Bihar, Karnataka, and Kerala are exhibiting a second wave. In addition, we report that initially, the death counts show similar behavior as the infection counts. Later, however, the death growth rate declines as compared to the infection growth due to better handling of critical cases and increased immunity of the population. These observations indicate that except Delhi, most of the Indian states are far from flattening their epidemic curves.
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spelling pubmed-74743322020-09-08 Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India Asad, Ali Srivastava, Siddharth Verma, Mahendra K. Trans Indian Natl. Acad. Eng. Original Article A mathematical analysis of patterns for the evolution of COVID-19 cases is key to the development of reliable and robust predictive models potentially leading to efficient and effective governance against COVID-19. Towards this objective, we study and analyze the temporal growth pattern of COVID-19 infection and death counts in various states of India. Our analysis up to August 4, 2020, shows that several states (namely Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal) have reached [Formula: see text] power-law growth, while Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh exhibit linear growth. Delhi has reached [Formula: see text] phase and may flatten in the coming days. However, some states have deviated from the universal pattern of the epidemic curve. Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan show a gradual rise in the power-law regime, which is not the usual trend. Also, Bihar, Karnataka, and Kerala are exhibiting a second wave. In addition, we report that initially, the death counts show similar behavior as the infection counts. Later, however, the death growth rate declines as compared to the infection growth due to better handling of critical cases and increased immunity of the population. These observations indicate that except Delhi, most of the Indian states are far from flattening their epidemic curves. Springer Singapore 2020-09-05 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7474332/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00166-y Text en © Indian National Academy of Engineering 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Article
Asad, Ali
Srivastava, Siddharth
Verma, Mahendra K.
Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
title Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
title_full Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
title_fullStr Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
title_full_unstemmed Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
title_short Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
title_sort evolution of covid-19 pandemic in india
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474332/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00166-y
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