Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19

We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infecti...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hortaçsu, Ali, Liu, Jiarui, Schwieg, Timothy
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32921876
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
Descripción
Sumario:We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.

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