Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19

We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infecti...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hortaçsu, Ali, Liu, Jiarui, Schwieg, Timothy
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32921876
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
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author Hortaçsu, Ali
Liu, Jiarui
Schwieg, Timothy
author_facet Hortaçsu, Ali
Liu, Jiarui
Schwieg, Timothy
author_sort Hortaçsu, Ali
collection PubMed
description We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.
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spelling pubmed-74764542020-09-08 Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19 Hortaçsu, Ali Liu, Jiarui Schwieg, Timothy J Econom Article We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties. Elsevier B.V. 2021-01 2020-09-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7476454/ /pubmed/32921876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Hortaçsu, Ali
Liu, Jiarui
Schwieg, Timothy
Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_full Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_fullStr Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_short Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_sort estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: an application to covid-19
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32921876
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
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