Predicting the treatment response of certolizumab for individual adult patients with rheumatoid arthritis: protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: A model that can predict treatment response for a patient with specific baseline characteristics would help decision-making in personalized medicine. The aim of the study is to develop such a model in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who receive certolizumab (CTZ) plus methotrexate (MTX) therapy, using individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA). METHODS: We will search Cochrane CENTRAL, PubMed, and Scopus as well as clinical trial registries, drug regulatory agency reports, and the pharmaceutical company websites from their inception onwards to obtain randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating CTZ plus MTX compared with MTX alone in treating RA. We will request the individual-level data of these trials from an independent platform (http://vivli.org). The primary outcome is efficacy defined as achieving either remission (based on ACR-EULAR Boolean or index-based remission definition) or low disease activity (based on either of the validated composite disease activity measures). The secondary outcomes include ACR50 (50% improvement based on ACR core set variables) and adverse events. We will use a two-stage approach to develop the prediction model. First, we will construct a risk model for the outcomes via logistic regression to estimate the baseline risk scores. We will include baseline demographic, clinical, and biochemical features as covariates for this model. Next, we will develop a meta-regression model for treatment effects, in which the stage 1 risk score will be used both as a prognostic factor and as an effect modifier. We will calculate the probability of having the outcome for a new patient based on the model, which will allow estimation of the absolute and relative treatment effect. We will use R for our analyses, except for the second stage which will be performed in a Bayesian setting using R2Jags. DISCUSSION: This is a study protocol for developing a model to predict treatment response for RA patients receiving CTZ plus MTX in comparison with MTX alone, using a two-stage approach based on IPD-MA. The study will use a new modeling approach, which aims at retaining the statistical power. The model may help clinicians individualize treatment for particular patients. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number pending (ID#157595).