Radiomics nomogram for prediction disease-free survival and adjuvant chemotherapy benefits in patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND: Robust imaging biomarkers are needed for risk stratification in stage I lung adenocarcinoma patients in order to select optimal treatment regimen. We aimed to construct and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting the disease-free survival (DFS) of patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma, and further identifying candidates benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). METHODS: Using radiomics approach, we analyzed 554 patients’ computed tomography (CT) images from three multicenter cohorts. Prognostic radiomics features were extracted from computed tomography (CT) images and selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model to build a radiomics signature for DFS stratification. The biological basis of radiomics was explored in the Radiogenomics dataset (n=79) by gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). Then a nomogram that integrated the signature with these significant clinicopathologic factors in the multivariate analysis were constructed in the training cohort (n=238), and its prognostic accuracy was evaluated in the validation cohort (n=237). Finally, the predictive value of nomogram for ACT benefits was assessed. RESULTS: The radiomics signature with higher score was significantly associated with worse DFS in both the training and validation cohorts (P<0.001). The GSEA presented that the signature was highly correlated to characteristic metabolic process and immune system during cancer progression. Multivariable analysis revealed that age (P=0.031), pathologic TNM stage (P=0.043), histologic subtype (P=0.010) and the signature (P<0.001) were independently associated with patients’ DFS. The integrated radiomics nomogram showed good discrimination performance, as well as good calibration and clinical utility, for DFS prediction in the validation cohort. We further found that the patients with high points (point ≥8.788) defined by the radiomics nomogram obtained a significant favorable response to ACT (P=0.04) while patients with low points (point <8.788) showed no survival difference (P=0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The radiomics nomogram could be used for prognostic prediction and ACT benefits identification for patient with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma.