Epidemiology and determinants of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and its conversion to type 2 diabetes mellitus, 2000–2015: cohort population study using UK electronic health records

OBJECTIVES: To study the characteristics of UK individuals identified with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH) and their conversion rates to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from 2000 to 2015, using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTINGS: UK primary Care Practices. PARTICIPANTS: Electronic health records identified 14 272 participants with NDH, from 2000 to 2015. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline characteristics and conversion trends from NDH to T2DM were explored. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated predictors of conversion. RESULTS: Crude conversion was 4% within 6 months of NDH diagnosis, 7% annually, 13% within 2 years, 17% within 3 years and 23% within 5 years. However, 1-year conversion fell from 8% in 2000 to 4% in 2014. Individuals aged 45–54 were at the highest risk of developing T2DM (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.25— compared with those aged 18–44), and the risk reduced with older age. A body mass index (BMI) above 30 kg/m(2) was strongly associated with conversion (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.92 to 2.13—compared with those with a normal BMI). Depression (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.13), smoking (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11—compared with non-smokers) or residing in the most deprived areas (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24—compared with residents of the most affluent areas) was modestly associated with conversion. CONCLUSION: Although the rate of conversion from NDH to T2DM fell between 2010 and 2015, this is likely due to changes over time in the cut-off points for defining NDH, and more people of lower diabetes risk being diagnosed with NDH over time. People aged 45–54, smokers, depressed, with high BMI and more deprived are at increased risk of conversion to T2DM.