Derivation and validation of the J-CTO extension score for pre-procedural prediction of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in patients with chronic total occlusions

We developed a prediction model of long-term risk after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for coronary chronic total occlusion (CTO) based on pre-procedural clinical information. A total of 4,139 eligible patients, who underwent CTO-PCI at 52 Japanese centers were included. Specifically, 1,909 patients with 1-year data were randomly divided into the derivation (n = 1,273) and validation (n = 636) groups. Major adverse cardiac and cardiovascular event (MACCE) was the primary endpoint, including death, stroke, revascularization, and non-fatal myocardial infarction. We assessed the performance of our model using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and assigned a simplified point-scoring system. One-hundred-thirty-eight (10.8%) patients experienced MACCE in the derivation cohort with hemodialysis (HD: odds ratio [OR] = 2.55), left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEF) <35% (OR = 2.23), in-stent occlusions (ISO: OR = 2.27), and diabetes mellitus (DM: OR = 1.72). The AUC of the derivation model was 0.650. The model’s performance was similar in the validation cohort (AUC, 0.610). When assigned a point for each associated factor (HD = 3, LVEF <35%, ISO = 2, and DM = 1 point), the average predicted versus the observed MACCE probability using the Japan-CTO extension score for the low, moderate, high, and very high risk groups was 8.1% vs. 7.3%, 16.9% vs. 15.9%, 22.0% vs. 26.1%, and 56.2% vs. 44.4%, respectively. This novel risk model may allow for the estimation of long-term risk and be useful in disseminating appropriate revascularization procedures.