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Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics
To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and rem...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7486771/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32820077 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006392117 |
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author | Goldstein, Joshua R. Lee, Ronald D. |
author_facet | Goldstein, Joshua R. Lee, Ronald D. |
author_sort | Goldstein, Joshua R. |
collection | PubMed |
description | To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7486771 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74867712020-09-23 Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics Goldstein, Joshua R. Lee, Ronald D. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Social Sciences To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades. National Academy of Sciences 2020-09-08 2020-08-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7486771/ /pubmed/32820077 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006392117 Text en Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Social Sciences Goldstein, Joshua R. Lee, Ronald D. Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
title | Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
title_full | Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
title_fullStr | Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed | Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
title_short | Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
title_sort | demographic perspectives on the mortality of covid-19 and other epidemics |
topic | Social Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7486771/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32820077 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006392117 |
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