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Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India
India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies fo...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7487749/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32854801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820001946 |
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author | Chanu, Athokpam Langlen Singh, R. K. Brojen |
author_facet | Chanu, Athokpam Langlen Singh, R. K. Brojen |
author_sort | Chanu, Athokpam Langlen |
collection | PubMed |
description | India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies for the pandemic. Our stochastic simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained right from the start of the pandemic and continued until its end for effective control. This calls for a more disciplined social lifestyle in the future. However, only social distancing and quarantine of the exposed population are found not sufficient enough to end the pandemic in India. Therefore, implementation of other stringent policies like complete lockdown as well as increased testing of susceptible populations is necessary. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7487749 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74877492020-09-14 Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India Chanu, Athokpam Langlen Singh, R. K. Brojen Epidemiol Infect Original Paper India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies for the pandemic. Our stochastic simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained right from the start of the pandemic and continued until its end for effective control. This calls for a more disciplined social lifestyle in the future. However, only social distancing and quarantine of the exposed population are found not sufficient enough to end the pandemic in India. Therefore, implementation of other stringent policies like complete lockdown as well as increased testing of susceptible populations is necessary. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic. Cambridge University Press 2020-08-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7487749/ /pubmed/32854801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820001946 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Chanu, Athokpam Langlen Singh, R. K. Brojen Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India |
title | Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India |
title_full | Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India |
title_fullStr | Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India |
title_full_unstemmed | Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India |
title_short | Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India |
title_sort | stochastic approach to study control strategies of covid-19 pandemic in india |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7487749/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32854801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820001946 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT chanuathokpamlanglen stochasticapproachtostudycontrolstrategiesofcovid19pandemicinindia AT singhrkbrojen stochasticapproachtostudycontrolstrategiesofcovid19pandemicinindia |