Understanding the risks for post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION: Disasters have many forms, including those related to natural hazards and armed conflict. Human-induced global change, such as climate change, may alter hazard parameters of these disasters. These alterations can have serious consequences for vulnerable populations, which often experience post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks, leading to morbidity and mortality. The risks and drivers for these outbreaks and their ability to form cascades are somewhat contested. Despite evidence for post-disaster outbreaks, reviews quantifying them have been on short time scales, specific geographic areas or specific hazards. This review aims to fill this gap and gain a greater understanding of the risk factors involved in these contextual outbreaks on a global level. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols 2015 checklist and Khan’s methodological framework, a systematic search strategy will be created and carried out in August 2020. The strategy will search MEDLINE, Embase and GlobalHealth electronic databases and reference lists of selected literature will also be screened. Eligible studies will include any retrospective cross-sectional, case–control or cohort studies investigating an infectious disease outbreak in a local disaster affected population. Studies will not be excluded based on geographic area or publication date. Excluded papers will include non-English studies, reviews, single case studies and research discussing general risk factors, international refugee camps, public health, mental health and other non-communicable diseases, pathogen genetics or economics. Following selection, data will be extracted into a data charting form, that will be reviewed by other members of the team. The data will then be analysed both numerically and narratively. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Only secondary data will be used and there will be no public or patient involvement; therefore, no ethical approval is needed. Our findings will aim to be disseminated through a peer-reviewed journal. The authors intend to use the results to inform future mathematical modelling studies.