Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs t...

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Autores principales: Nedelciu, C.E., Ragnarsdottir, K.V., Schlyter, P., Stjernquist, I.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7490587/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32953430
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426
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author Nedelciu, C.E.
Ragnarsdottir, K.V.
Schlyter, P.
Stjernquist, I.
author_facet Nedelciu, C.E.
Ragnarsdottir, K.V.
Schlyter, P.
Stjernquist, I.
author_sort Nedelciu, C.E.
collection PubMed
description Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.
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spelling pubmed-74905872020-09-15 Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050 Nedelciu, C.E. Ragnarsdottir, K.V. Schlyter, P. Stjernquist, I. Glob Food Sec Article Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades. The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020-09 2020-09-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7490587/ /pubmed/32953430 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426 Text en © 2020 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Nedelciu, C.E.
Ragnarsdottir, K.V.
Schlyter, P.
Stjernquist, I.
Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
title Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
title_full Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
title_fullStr Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
title_full_unstemmed Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
title_short Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
title_sort global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: assessing regional impact to 2050
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7490587/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32953430
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426
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