Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China

Assume an uncertain process follows an uncertain differential equation, and some realizations of this process are observed. Parameter estimation for the uncertain differential equation that fits the observed data as much as possible is a core problem in practice. This paper first presents a problem...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lio, Waichon, Liu, Baoding
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7491600/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09337-6
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author Lio, Waichon
Liu, Baoding
author_facet Lio, Waichon
Liu, Baoding
author_sort Lio, Waichon
collection PubMed
description Assume an uncertain process follows an uncertain differential equation, and some realizations of this process are observed. Parameter estimation for the uncertain differential equation that fits the observed data as much as possible is a core problem in practice. This paper first presents a problem of initial value estimation for uncertain differential equations and proposes an estimation method. In addition, the method of moments is recast for estimating the time-varying parameters in uncertain differential equations. Using those techniques, a COVID-19 spread model based on uncertain differential equation is derived, and the zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China is inferred.
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spelling pubmed-74916002020-09-15 Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China Lio, Waichon Liu, Baoding Fuzzy Optim Decis Making Article Assume an uncertain process follows an uncertain differential equation, and some realizations of this process are observed. Parameter estimation for the uncertain differential equation that fits the observed data as much as possible is a core problem in practice. This paper first presents a problem of initial value estimation for uncertain differential equations and proposes an estimation method. In addition, the method of moments is recast for estimating the time-varying parameters in uncertain differential equations. Using those techniques, a COVID-19 spread model based on uncertain differential equation is derived, and the zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China is inferred. Springer US 2020-09-15 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7491600/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09337-6 Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Lio, Waichon
Liu, Baoding
Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
title Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
title_full Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
title_fullStr Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
title_full_unstemmed Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
title_short Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
title_sort initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of covid-19 spread in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7491600/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09337-6
work_keys_str_mv AT liowaichon initialvalueestimationofuncertaindifferentialequationsandzerodayofcovid19spreadinchina
AT liubaoding initialvalueestimationofuncertaindifferentialequationsandzerodayofcovid19spreadinchina

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