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The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19
This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains o...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7491714/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32931506 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239251 |
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author | Inoue, Hiroyasu Todo, Yasuyuki |
author_facet | Inoue, Hiroyasu Todo, Yasuyuki |
author_sort | Inoue, Hiroyasu |
collection | PubMed |
description | This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country’s annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7491714 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74917142020-09-18 The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 Inoue, Hiroyasu Todo, Yasuyuki PLoS One Research Article This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country’s annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month. Public Library of Science 2020-09-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7491714/ /pubmed/32931506 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239251 Text en © 2020 Inoue, Todo http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Inoue, Hiroyasu Todo, Yasuyuki The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 |
title | The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 |
title_full | The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 |
title_short | The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 |
title_sort | propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: the case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of covid-19 |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7491714/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32931506 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239251 |
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