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Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events
Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the tropo...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7492229/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32934223 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18299-7 |
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author | Gray, L. J. Brown, M. J. Knight, J. Andrews, M. Lu, H. O’Reilly, C. Anstey, J. |
author_facet | Gray, L. J. Brown, M. J. Knight, J. Andrews, M. Lu, H. O’Reilly, C. Anstey, J. |
author_sort | Gray, L. J. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the troposphere and equatorial stratosphere separately, using a split vortex event in January 2009 as the primary case study. This event cannot be reproduced by constraining wind and temperatures in the troposphere alone, even when the equatorial lower stratosphere is in the correct phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. When the flow in the equatorial upper stratosphere is also constrained, the timing and spatial evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and hence their associated impacts at the surface. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7492229 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74922292020-10-01 Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events Gray, L. J. Brown, M. J. Knight, J. Andrews, M. Lu, H. O’Reilly, C. Anstey, J. Nat Commun Article Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the troposphere and equatorial stratosphere separately, using a split vortex event in January 2009 as the primary case study. This event cannot be reproduced by constraining wind and temperatures in the troposphere alone, even when the equatorial lower stratosphere is in the correct phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. When the flow in the equatorial upper stratosphere is also constrained, the timing and spatial evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and hence their associated impacts at the surface. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-09-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7492229/ /pubmed/32934223 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18299-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Gray, L. J. Brown, M. J. Knight, J. Andrews, M. Lu, H. O’Reilly, C. Anstey, J. Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
title | Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
title_full | Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
title_fullStr | Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
title_short | Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
title_sort | forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7492229/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32934223 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18299-7 |
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