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Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19

Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations has been an exceedingly difficult task. This paper presents an [Formula: see text] -path-based approach that can handle the proposed high-dimensional uncertain SIR model. We apply the [Formula: see text] -path-based...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chen, Xiaowei, Li, Jing, Xiao, Chen, Yang, Peilin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7495411/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09342-9
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author Chen, Xiaowei
Li, Jing
Xiao, Chen
Yang, Peilin
author_facet Chen, Xiaowei
Li, Jing
Xiao, Chen
Yang, Peilin
author_sort Chen, Xiaowei
collection PubMed
description Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations has been an exceedingly difficult task. This paper presents an [Formula: see text] -path-based approach that can handle the proposed high-dimensional uncertain SIR model. We apply the [Formula: see text] -path-based approach to calculating the uncertainty distributions and related expected values of the solutions. Furthermore, we employ the method of moments to estimate parameters and design a numerical algorithm to solve them. This model is applied to describing the development trend of COVID-19 using infected and recovered data of Hubei province. The results indicate that lockdown policy achieves almost 100% efficiency after February 13, 2020, which is consistent with the existing literatures. The high-dimensional [Formula: see text] -path-based approach opens up new possibilities in solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations and new applications.
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spelling pubmed-74954112020-09-17 Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19 Chen, Xiaowei Li, Jing Xiao, Chen Yang, Peilin Fuzzy Optim Decis Making Article Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations has been an exceedingly difficult task. This paper presents an [Formula: see text] -path-based approach that can handle the proposed high-dimensional uncertain SIR model. We apply the [Formula: see text] -path-based approach to calculating the uncertainty distributions and related expected values of the solutions. Furthermore, we employ the method of moments to estimate parameters and design a numerical algorithm to solve them. This model is applied to describing the development trend of COVID-19 using infected and recovered data of Hubei province. The results indicate that lockdown policy achieves almost 100% efficiency after February 13, 2020, which is consistent with the existing literatures. The high-dimensional [Formula: see text] -path-based approach opens up new possibilities in solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations and new applications. Springer US 2020-09-17 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7495411/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09342-9 Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Xiaowei
Li, Jing
Xiao, Chen
Yang, Peilin
Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19
title Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19
title_full Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19
title_fullStr Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19
title_short Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19
title_sort numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain sir model with application to covid-19
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7495411/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09342-9
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