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Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean
Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can inform on ex...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7498587/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32943692 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72073-9 |
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author | Hammond, Matthew L. Beaulieu, Claudie Henson, Stephanie A. Sahu, Sujit K. |
author_facet | Hammond, Matthew L. Beaulieu, Claudie Henson, Stephanie A. Sahu, Sujit K. |
author_sort | Hammond, Matthew L. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can inform on expected changes and are used here to constrain observational trend estimates and their uncertainty. We produce estimates of ocean surface chlorophyll trends, by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to form priors as a “first guess”, which are then updated using satellite observations in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Regional chlorophyll trends are found to be significantly different from zero in 18/23 regions, in the range ± 1.8% year(−1). A global average of these regional trends shows a net positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.35% year(−1), highlighting the importance of considering chlorophyll changes at a regional level. We compare these results with estimates obtained with the commonly used “vague” prior, representing no independent knowledge; coupled model priors are shown to slightly reduce trend magnitude and uncertainties in most regions. The statistical model used here provides a robust framework for making best use of all available information and can be applied to improve understanding of global change. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7498587 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74985872020-09-18 Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean Hammond, Matthew L. Beaulieu, Claudie Henson, Stephanie A. Sahu, Sujit K. Sci Rep Article Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can inform on expected changes and are used here to constrain observational trend estimates and their uncertainty. We produce estimates of ocean surface chlorophyll trends, by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to form priors as a “first guess”, which are then updated using satellite observations in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Regional chlorophyll trends are found to be significantly different from zero in 18/23 regions, in the range ± 1.8% year(−1). A global average of these regional trends shows a net positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.35% year(−1), highlighting the importance of considering chlorophyll changes at a regional level. We compare these results with estimates obtained with the commonly used “vague” prior, representing no independent knowledge; coupled model priors are shown to slightly reduce trend magnitude and uncertainties in most regions. The statistical model used here provides a robust framework for making best use of all available information and can be applied to improve understanding of global change. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-09-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7498587/ /pubmed/32943692 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72073-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Hammond, Matthew L. Beaulieu, Claudie Henson, Stephanie A. Sahu, Sujit K. Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
title | Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
title_full | Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
title_fullStr | Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
title_full_unstemmed | Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
title_short | Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
title_sort | regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7498587/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32943692 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72073-9 |
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